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Strains Tell within Europe over Kosovo
12 September 2007 Trapped between the tough and exclusive positions adopted by the US and Russia, even the semblance of EU unity over Kosovo is falling apart.
By Branka Trivic in Belgrade
The tough and contradictory positions taken by the United States and Russia over Kosovo may lead to a policy split in the European Union and a subsequent loss of credibility as a foreign policy player, analysts warn.
In an interview with AFP on September 8, US Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs, Kurt Volker, said Kosovo appeared determined to declare independence in the absence of any settlement on the province's future status.
“We would recognise Kosovo’s independence as, we assume, a number of others would as well, because that is the only stable way forward in the Balkans,” he said.
Russia’s deputy Foreign Minister, Vladimir Titov, was quick to react, voicing strong concern that any statements prejudicing a future solution before negotiations wind up would not contribute to the process.
Austria’s Foreign Minister, Ursula Plassnik, meanwhile on Sunday indirectly criticized statements both by the US and by Moscow. “Neither of the two [Serbia or Kosovo] will join either the US or Russia, but the direction is the European Union,” Plassnik said.
Despite the State Department’s subsequent insistence that the media had misquoted their official, the sense that the Americans may be gearing up for a unilateral move on Kosovo has lingered.
Experts argue that the current stalemate over Kosovo and the prospect of unilateral recognition have caused further divisions within the EU. The situation is similar to that in the early 1990s during the break-up of the former Yugoslavia, and may leave the EU without a united voice on the issue. Another stumbling block, they say, is the status of the future EU mission, as some of its members would refrain from sending troops or contributing to a civilian mission in Kosovo without a UN mandate.
Caught between a rock and a hard place, EU foreign ministers struggled at a weekend summit in Portugal to build a united front. But diplomats have been forced to concede differences on Kosovo among the 27 states are deep.
While Britain and France seem ready to recognize Kosovo’s independence, Spain, Hungary, Greece, Slovakia, Cyprus, Romania and Bulgaria are reluctant and other nations are also ambivalent. “The status of Kosovo has to be resolved within the UN,” Spain’s Miguel Angel Moratinos, was quoted as saying at the summit.
Bulgaria’s Foreign Minister, Ivajlo Kalfin, said on Tuesday in Sofia that the international community had to bring Belgrade and Pristina to “a quick agreement through mutual concessions”, adding that neither Belgrade nor Pristina should be forced into a solution that they have not both agreed to.
One country whose position over Kosovo’s independence is perceived as ambiguous is Germany. Some are convinced, however, that Germany is actually at the forefront of those countries opposing any unilateral move leading to Kosovo’s independence. Last week, Berlin warned against any attempts to sidestep the UN and Russia on Kosovo’s independence, complaining that such moves might jeopardise Germany’s own relations with Moscow.
Other analysts insist Germany is not interested in picking a new fight with Washington. “The last thing the Germans need, after the dispute with the US over Iraq, is another dispute over the Balkans,” Jonathan Eyal, of the Royal United Services Institute, said.
The former US ambassador to Serbia, William Montgomery, meanwhile, doubts Washington wants a conflict with Europe over Kosovo, either. “If Britain, France and Germany agree to unilateral recognition of Kosovo, that would give the United States enough courage to support the Albanians to go ahead and do it,” he said in a recent interview to Radio Free Europe.
“But if any of those three countries are persuaded by the doubters, by the others in the European Union, to not take this step… I do not think the United States would be willing to do it alone.”
European diplomats made no secret of their hunch that the prospects of a deal between Belgrade and Pristina before talks wind up on December 10 are slim.
Luis Amado of Portugal, which holds the rotating EU presidency, warned that avoiding a European split on Kosovo is “key to the credibility of Europe’s foreign policy.” At the same time, he admitted there were no guarantees how each EU member state would behave if the talks failed.
“Deja vue”, remarks Mark Almond, historian at Oriel College, University of Oxford. “We are now back to the position we were in 1991 when some EU states wanted to recognise a breakaway by Croatia and Slovenia, while others thought this was a bad idea, so we are in some ways back to where we were 16 years ago.”
As a result of its habitual splits and foot-dragging over the Yugoslav wars, the EU lost much of its credibility as an international player in the 1990s.
Worried that the EU may end up pursuing the same - lame duck policy in Kosovo, Richard Holbrooke, the Clinton administration’s troubleshooter, concluded after the March 2004 riots in Kosovo that Washington alone holds the key: US pressure – always the necessary ingredient in dealing with the sluggish, process-driven European Union – is required to resolve the status of Kosovo once and for all.
David Chandler, professor of international relations at the Westminster University, also acknowledges divisions within the EU over the issue of unilateral recognition of Kosovo.
“We all remember the fragmentation of Yugoslavia, which was led by unilateral recognitions in a lot of cases, sometimes by EU states like Germany, other times, as in the case of Bosnia, by America,” he said.
Chandler makes another important point: “If Kosovo was to be unilaterally recognized as independent, it would be problematic in terms of a lack of clarity about where the responsibility lies,” he said.
Eyal agrees, highlighting another concern for Europeans should Kosovo’s independence be unilaterally recognized – the status of the current peacekeeping mission.
“What will be the status of the international force that would continue to exist in Kosovo if it is seen that the United States is violating the UN Security Council resolution 1244 which established that force on the ground?” he asked.
Some EU countries constitutionally ban sending troops to take part in international missions in the absence of a UN mandate. “It is very clear that the German parliament…is not going to authorize to keep the German troops on the ground [in Kosovo] when it is not at all clear what is the international legal mandate of that force,” Eyal went on.
Faced with the American threat of unilateralism in Kosovo, EU officials are in a panic that has been reflected in many recent confusing statements and denials, some touching on the possible partition of Kosovo. Caught between the need to maintain stability in the volatile Balkans and to safeguard unity within the EU, Brussels does not seem to know which card to play in order to prove it still has some credibility in resolving the Kosovo endgame.
Branka Trivic is a correspondent of RFE/RL in Belgrade. Balkan Insight is BIRN`s online publication.
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The opinions expressed in Balkan Insight are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network.
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