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Comment: January 5, 2020 - Kosovo's Moment of Truth?
30 October 2007 The
US
draft proposal to freeze Kosovo’s status until 2020, should not be dismissed,
if it helps achieve Kosovo’s political and economic independence.
By
Baton Haxhiu in Pristina
This
title, January 5, 2020, does not belong to a work of science fiction or a novel
published recently.
It
is grounded in an idea, the date of which shows the finale to resolving
Kosovo's status, which was published on October 29 as a proposal in Express.
That is a detailed American idea, and all the international and regional
partners might agree to it. Read more US Ponders Freezing Kosovo's Status until 2020.
I
am trying to present the good and the bad sides of this proposal, which has not
been officially acknowledged as yet. Based on many political parameters
surrounding us, it would not be good to refuse the idea a priori. So, our
stance should neither be against nor in favour before we have analysed our
position as well as the position of our international partners, in particular
that of the US,
which is our strategic partner.
January
5, 2020 seems to be far away, but when evaluating the years that have passed,
this date has many elements that should be carefully assessed.
Let
us explain the last 20 years. On March 28, 1989 Kosovo was occupied by Serbia. Ten
years later, on June 12, 1999, Kosovo was liberated. During that 10-year period
there were hopes that Kosovo might become independent, and that the US would
declare it. But that did not happen. The US
then brought us freedom - together with its European allies, Great Britain
in particular.
Since
June 12, 1999 Kosovo has been free, but has not had legal sovereignty over all
its territory.
Now
it is 2007. The negotiations are foreseen to end on December 10. There is a
statement by the Troika, that there will be no agreement, unless there is a 50%
compromise; there is another statement by the Kosovo delegation that there is
no alternative to an independent Kosovo; and finally, there is a statement by
Russia and Serbia that the UN Security Council will not endorse a document
which would recognize Kosovo’s independence.
And
besides these political dilemmas and strategies, there is an opportunity to be
free of the fear of crisis in the future. I will mention two questions that
need to be answered. First, are we able to protect our territorial integrity
and political stability after we declare independence? And second, can there be economic development
in Kosovo, if there is a political crisis? If we are not able to answer these
questions then we should be very careful about issuing any rejection before we
have analysed things properly.
On
the other hand, the American idea - which for the time being is not the only
one - offers two things: buying independence until 2020 and a referendum. In
addition, Kosovo will get billions of euros every year.
If
for the past 10 years we have won freedom but not independence, then 10 more
years of negotiations and of building institutions under a protectorate, 10
more years of a frozen independence process should be accepted under one
condition: will we really be economically and politically independent by 2020?
The
question is: what would we get until 2020 if we declare independence now? We might lose Kosovo north; international recognition
of independence could take years; we would be isolated; there would be no
economic development; there would be total insecurity and inter-ethnic
conflict; no possibilities for EU integration.
On
the other hand, if there are guarantees that we will have a referendum on January
5, 2020 and that every year Kosovo will receive funds for its development, and
that we will be ready to join the EU as a developed country, then there is no
reason why such an idea should not be considered. That should certainly the
case, if all these are guaranteed in a document signed by the US, EU, Russia,
China, Great Britain, Kosovo and Serbia, as well as the countries of the region -
Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania.
If
somebody thinks that we can now initiate the independence process and, in case
we fail, we can join Albania,
then this idea should be considered with less optimism. Albania is not ready to cause
political instability and to lose the privileges it has been granted. In the
next 10 years many things would be clarified - in particular after the
construction of the Durres-Kosovo highway.
This
idea should be considered very carefully before giving a positive or a negative
answer. We can declare independence whenever we want, if an eventual agreement
is not respected. But can we survive without others' help? In short, what should be the next step? We
should not forget that in the next 12 years we would have economic development on
our side.
Baton
Haxhiu is director of Kosovo`s Express daily and this comment was published
Express, on October 29. Balkan Insight is BIRN`s online publication.
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Comments:
Well-written article
Posted: 2007-11-10 12:54:22,
This is one of the most honest articles about the future of Kosova that I've ever read. Mr. Haxhiu considers all possible decisions. A very diplomatic and intelligent way of looking to the future...